In Iran, there are currently strong unrest demonstrations on one side. The suppression of the same on the other, 12,000 dead in two days, the state militias are shooting live ammunition at the demonstrators. Anyone who wants to pick up the body of a relative must pay 10,000 euros. The internet is largely down. And it is still not entirely clear where this will lead or if it will lead to anything at all. What is clear is that it is brutal.
But it is perhaps the most interesting struggle currently taking place. Iran joined the BRICS states in 2023, thus providing support for the new anti-American world economy that Putin has built. And Trump is becoming increasingly active in trying to counteract this. And if the current regime continues to crack down so hard, the call for help from outside will quickly become loud. I have not yet heard anything about the Americans playing their usual game there. It is certainly conceivable. And it would not be the first time in Iran.
When the old Shah Reza was overthrown in 1979, this revolution was supported by the Russians at that time with the aim of creating another communist country, for Lenin had already said that the communist revolution would be a world revolution or it would not be at all. Trotsky goes in the same direction. Before that, the Americans had warned the leader of the revolution Ayatollah Khomeini, whereupon he simply eliminated his helpers and established the Islamic state known today. American-sanctioned revolutions in the 20th century mostly end with some form of dictatorship. So also in Iran. It is no coincidence that Iranians are among the large refugee groups in Europe.
At that time, the expansion of the Soviet Union and thus the world revolution of communism was halted with Iran. The current situation is not dissimilar, only with reversed signs. Back then, the Soviet Union was the politically greater evil, I agree. However, the BRICS states today, which also originate from Russia like back then, are even urgently needed for the world, I would say. If there were to be a change of power in Iran, the BRICS states would lose one of their new alliance partners, and should the Americans be actively involved there, which I do not currently know, then that is definitely their motivation, that much is clear. On the other hand, if the current regime were to really fall as a result of the unrest there, it could become the second secular Islamic state in history, the first being Turkey in 1923 under Atatürk, and it is even more important that the political expansion of Islam comes to an end. Privately, people can believe what they want. Furthermore, I believe that the expansion of BRICS is no longer stoppable. And a secular Iran would be a sign for the Islamic world.
If the current unrest there should lead to a regime change, then the son of the old Shah Reza Pahlavi is available. He is closely following what is happening in his homeland and published a call on January 12, just two days ago. He assures his people of help, speaks of a new phase of resistance, and encourages the militias to join the people. He spends his exile in the USA, which makes it likely that the USA wants to repeat its game from 1979. Because with the reinstatement of the old Shah family, they would win many votes in Iran, and the Shah would presumably support the USA, which is of course not certain. It is quite possible that a new Iran would also support the BRICS movement.
There are currently only demonstrations. But that was no different during the French Revolution – and at the fall of the Berlin Wall. And ……
It would be like a dream come true for many Iranians. I personally have friends there.
Update
Trump has reportedly just urged all Americans to leave the country …… so the help from outside may not take long. The American cowboys are riding again.
